Escaping COVID-19

If you love playing escape rooms, you have undoubtedly played one or more virus-themed rooms where your mission was to prevent a super virus from being released into the general population.  COVID-19 (aka SARS-Cov-2 or novel coronavirus) feels a bit like the aftermath of such a scenario where we are now fighting the clock to limit the extent of the impact this virus may have. It’s been very surreal to witness sections of grocery stores picked clean, see footage of national landmarks now almost vacant, and see the tragic imagery of the impact to Italy’s medical infrastructure.

So you may be asking yourself, “Is it safe to play an escape room?”  Let’s walk through the impacts of COVID-19 and how this may effect escape room businesses.

Processing this has been very challenging. The situation is evolving day-by-day and we are seeing extreme measures taken.  Within a matter of just a few weeks this has dramatically changed our work and social lives.

Businesses everywhere are affected, in particular, small businesses including escape rooms. Impacts include loss of revenue, laying off employees, etc. For the most part we are seeing how well people respond to a crisis, exhibiting great commitment and bravery to keep us safe and to limit the impact to our daily lives.

Reaction to the virus has been as extreme.  Disinfectants, hand sanitizers, toilet paper, paper towels, and bottled water appear to be in highest demand.  At the time of this writing, Amazon.com, which can be an indicator of the supply chain strain, shows that only off-brand items for toilet paper such as this item are available.  For other items, such as this paper towel product, availability/ delivery times are delayed.  The FDA is monitoring the food supply chain for shortages and is reporting that there are currently no wide-spread disruptions reported in the supply chain [1].

I was a bit surprised to see how quickly our New Mexico Governor issued a state of emergency.  We had just seen our first couple of presumptive positive cases.  I later thought this was more to release resources and funding than to prepare and implement preventive measures since so few cases had existed.  The Governor has since communicated to us that they have been preparing for this since long before the virus had appeared in our state.

After seeing the beginning of these measures being implemented by the Governor, I then started looking at the data from China to see if, in a broad sense, I could estimate the effects for the U.S.  I say “broad” as this is not my area of expertise, and I am not familiar with the models health experts use to estimate potential effects.  Trying to fit the curve was challenging at first – a 4^th order polynomial fit was not terrible but also was not great.  Then I stumbled across the Hill equation, and it seems to be a reasonable fit for the adjusted number of cases (i.e., adjusted for the change in criteria for confirmation of new cases).

The shape of the curve provides a perspective on the transmission of the virus.  The number of cases rises slowly in the initial phase, then escalates at some rate, then levels out.  I think the U.S. is just now seeing the number of cases going around the lower curve and starting to head upward.  This could explain the marked increases we have been seeing across the nation over the past few days.

In my amateur opinion, these increases are not an indication of our recently implemented measures failing.  Data is lagging, perhaps 3-5 days or more, plus we are seeing increases of positive diagnoses correlating to a sharp increase in recent testing.  As the Hill curve shows above, this is a normal progression of the virus.

Estimating a total number of cases is difficult.  There are an infinite number of outcomes and hence huge uncertainty.  Each day provides an additional data point that should reduce the uncertainty, providing a more accurate conclusion.  Looking at possible outcomes has provided perspective to me as to why these measures were taken so quickly.  This is supported by a recent statement in which California estimates half of their population may test positive over the next eight weeks [2].

You have probably heard the news media use the words bending or flattening the curve.  This means that we are trying to bend the straight, vertical part of this curve towards the right to reduce the height of the curve.  While this is extremely important to reduce stress on our medical infrastructure and to give us time to develop a vaccine, it will also extend the duration depending upon the effectiveness of our preventive measures.

A challenge we must face is how to determine when to reduce preventive measures.  If we remove them too soon, we face the possibility of a second curve forming. Removing them too late results in a larger impact to the economy.  We need to find the right balance between what is safe and what minimally disrupts our lives.

While this all seems quite scary, let’s put this into perspective.  The CDC estimates that annually since 2010, influenza has resulted in between 9 million and 45 million illnesses in the U.S.  Of those,  between 140,000 and 810,000 hospitalizations have occurred, with between 12,000 and 61,000 deaths [3].  Because we are so accustomed to hearing about the ‘flu, and because we have vaccines and treatments, we tend to overlook these statistics.

The speed of transmission is different between the two.  According to the World Health Organization, influenza has a shorter median incubation period (the time from infection to appearance of symptoms) and a shorter serial interval (the time between successive cases) than COVID-19 virus. The serial interval for COVID-19 virus is estimated to be 5-6 days, while for influenza virus, the serial interval is 3 days. This means that influenza can spread faster than COVID-19 [4].

According to the CDC, the groups of individuals who are at higher risk for more serious complications are older adults and people of any age who have serious underlying medical conditions (i.e., heart disease, diabetes, and lung disease). People with asthma also may be at high risk of getting very sick from COVID-19 [5].

As I mentioned earlier, this is having a large impact to businesses hitting small business like escape room businesses particularly hard.  So what measures are we seeing for escape room businesses and how should you decide whether to continue playing escape rooms at this time?

Protective measures of varying levels are being taken everywhere.  Many escape rooms are temporarily closing while others that remain open are taking measures such as limiting games to private groups, sanitizing rooms between games, and providing/encouraging use of their sanitizing liquid / soap.  Most offer flexible cancellations.  Some provide plastic/nitrile gloves, such as these. This is expected to evolve.

Is it safe to play escape rooms at this time?  My answer is yes, if the necessary precautions are taken.  You need to decide if it’s worth the risk.  The CDC makes it clear that if there is an outbreak in your community, stay home as much as possible to reduce your risk of exposure.  Similar guidance is being provided in other countries.

How can you help your local escape room businesses weather this storm?  You can buy a voucher for a future booking.  Many businesses are offering such vouchers at a discount.  You can also buy a play-at-home game (see list below). 

It wouldn’t surprise me if some started offering a virtual escape room that we could play at home using a home Virtual Reality (VR) system.

Games being offered by escape room businesses:

• The Escape Game – Escape From Iron Gate
• The Escape Game (TEG) Unlocked
• Breakout Games Dispatch
• Strange Bird Immersive – Madame Daphne’s Tarot Cards and Guide

While being sequestered at home, here are some other things you can do:

• Enjoy some hilarious songs for social distancing from the Holderness Family.
• Read that book you’ve been putting off because you were too busy.
• Escape the house occasionally by walking outside or taking a drive.
• Binge watch your favorite series, but no hoarding bandwidth – save some for the rest
  of us! 😊